Forecasting Tipping Points

ARIA is an R&D funding agency built to unlock scientific and technological breakthroughs that benefit everyone. We empower scientists and engineers to pursue research at the edge of what is technologically or scientifically possible. We will reach across disciplines, sectors and institutions to shape, fund and manage projects across the R&D ecosystem, from startups to universities, to break down silos and discover new pathways. We are looking for proposals for our Forecasting Tipping Points programme. For more info see here https://www.aria.org.uk/forecasting-tipping-points

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Contents

Summary

Why this programme

Major parts of the Earth system are at risk of crossing climate tipping points within the next century, with severe consequences for biodiversity, food security, agriculture, and humanity. Despite the potential impact, we’re poorly equipped to characterise the long-term trends of our climate systems, or predict the future risk of runaway, self-perpetuating change. Our best observational datasets are at a nascent stage, while our best climate models are computationally expensive and do not capture all the physical processes we need.

What we’re shooting for

Combining expertise in observation and modelling with innovative sensing systems, we’ll look to develop a proof-of-concept for an early warning system for climate tipping points that is affordable, sustainable and justified. We’ll achieve this through a targeted deployment of low-cost sensing systems, to be tested in a multi-year field campaign, whose data can be integrated with advances in physics- and AI-driven models to push the frontiers of knowledge for climate tipping points.By unifying these approaches, we’re aiming to confidently predict when a system will tip, what the consequences be, and how quickly that change will unfold.

Our goal: to create an early warning system for tipping points that equips the world with the information we need to build resilience and accelerate proactive climate adaptation.

For more information, see here.

Eligibility

Eligibility crtieria can be found in the programme call documents on ARIA's website here.

Objectives

See ARIA website for more detail here.

Dates

Detailed timelines can be found in the programme call information on ARIA's website here. The application process for Technical Areas 1, 2 and 3 consists of two stages:

  • Submission of a concept paper - At this stage and based on your concept paper, you will either be encouraged/ discouraged to submit a full proposal. If you receive feedback indicating that you are not encouraged to submit a full proposal you can still choose to submit a full proposal. You should note that this preliminary assessment/encouragement provides no guarantee of any full proposal being selected for award of funding.

     The deadline for submission of concept papers is 23 September 2024 (12:00 BST).

  • Submission of a full proposal - the deadline for submission of full proposals is 11 November 2024 (12:00 GMT).

How to apply

See ARIA's website here.

Supporting information

The total funding value is the estimated budget available. We expect to fund multiple applicants.The maximum individual award figure is an estimate only. Funding is anticipated to be awarded via both contracts and grants. For more information on how we fund, see here.